Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Bradley Effect Part II

This is a quick post as a follow-up to yesterday's discussion about the Bradley Effect. Interestingly, the guy managing the internal polls for Tom Bradley's opponent for the California gubernatorial race has written an article stating that in the couple of days before election day, their internal polls actually showed the race to be a dead heat. He doesn't believe there was any latent racist impact on the race whatsoever, that the race had just tightened up in the last week or so before election day. He points out also that some of those polls showing a commanding lead for Mr. Bradley before the election had serious sampling errors-- meaning that the results would be skewed or would have a large margin of error. Even most of the mainstream polls had shown the race to be very tight.

So maybe there never was a Bradley Effect at all!
Tom Bradley, by the way, was the mayor of Los Angeles for twenty years, from 1973 to 1993. The airport-- which I have seen more than a few times-- is named after him. He died in 1998 at the age of 80.

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